Figure 5: Different possible combinations of variables and their corresponding AIC values.
The results of the Chi squared test allowed us to discard aspect from the list of the informative independent variables. We then divided the remaining three variables into three intervals each based on their respective distribution, and explored each categorical variable through univariate logistic regression. Elevation has been divided into low elevation (700-800 m asl), medium elevation (800-900 m asl), and high elevation (900-1400 m asl). Distance has been divided into low distance (500-2000 m), medium distance (2000-4000 m) and high distance, which includes values above 4000. Following the same principle, slope angles were categorized into low slope (0-10°), medium slope (10-20°), and high slope (more than 20°). Each of the dummy variables was first tested individually using a dedicated univariate logistic regression. Based on the results obtained and the level of significance chosen (0.05) two out of nine variables, Low elevation and Low distance, were discarded. The resulting seven variables were used to build a model through multivariate logistic regression, which allowed us to choose the configuration of variables bearing the highest explanatory power for the observed spatial pattern. The model that best seems to predict the probability of finding burials includes the variables High distance, Medium distance, Low slope, and Medium elevation.
Preliminary results
The work presented is a first attempt of understanding the funerary landscape in one of the most important historical regions of Eurasia. The case study evidenced the need for an integrated approach, combining a systematic field data recording with hi-resolution spatial analyses, and a preliminary statistical approach. Data so far collected evidence a clear land use strategy, where the lowland was used for settlement and agricultural purposes, and the Karatyube piedmont as the place for burials throughout a very long period (Achaemenid, 6th-5th century BC – Late Middle Ages until modern times). Based on the results presented here, one of the possible future continuations of this research could be the development of a territorial predictive model: in this case the identification of variables that best predict the probability of identifying burials is particularly valuable.
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