As the project develops, we will post here all research outputs.
Forecasting the Transition: Expectation Dynamics under Climate Policy Volatility (E. Campiglio, M.E. Erazo Diaz, F. Lamperti, R. Terranova): a learning-to-forecast experiment examining how expectations about future carbon prices evolve in environments shaped by climate policy uncertainty and electoral shocks.
Norms vs Narratives: What Drives Green Investment? (E. Campiglio, M.M. Marini, A. Tavoni): a portfolio-allocation experiment studying how transition narratives and social/personal norms influence financial investment decisions.
Heterogeneous Expectations and Dirty Capital Reallocation (E. Campiglio, P. Peligry, A. Spiganti): a model exploring how differences in transition beliefs shape investment and divestment decisions—and, in turn, overall transition dynamics.
Randomised survey experiment with non-financial firms: an RCT-based survey investigating the determinants of firms’ transition-related expectations, and how exposure to transition-relevant information affects beliefs and behaviour.
Optimal climate policy under uncertain commitment and heterogeneous beliefs: a model studying optimal policy paths when government commitment is uncertain and expectations are heterogeneous.