Publications

Citation: Mussino, Eleonora; Ortensi, Livia Elisa; Comolli, Chiara Ludovica; Aurora Lounela, Mimmi (2026). Navigating Uncertainty: The Economic, Legal, and Union Determinants of Migrants’ Fertility Intentions. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.17045/sthlmuni.31169245.v1

Abstract: The relationship between migration and fertility is shaped by the complex interplay of various dimensions of uncertainty that migrants encounter before, during, and after their migration journey. This study leverages the availability of unique information regarding the uncertainty regarding migrants’ legal status, coupled with the more traditional forms of economic and union uncertainty, to investigate how these various dimensions of uncertainty influence migrants’ short-term fertility intentions. We use data from the 2019 Regional Observatory for Integration and Multi-ethnicity (ORIM), collected in the Italian region of Lombardy which presents a unique 'experimental laboratory' for examining these dynamics. ORIM collects a rich set of information on migration and family histories, current socioeconomic conditions, and fertility preferences of individuals with a migrant background. We use Linear Probability Models to predict migrants’ short-term fertility intentions depending on legal status, economic, and union uncertainty. Our results underscore that the three domains of uncertainty—economic, union-related, and legal—operate simultaneously and often reinforce one another. By leveraging data from a region with a sizable and diverse migrant population, our study offers broadly generalizable insights into the determinants of short-term fertility intentions, contributing to a more refined understanding of fertility behavior in contexts of international migration.

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Citation: Comolli, C.L., Albertini, M. The unequal childbearing response to labor market uncertainty in Europe: the role of social location, between macro and micro effects. Genus 81, 39 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-025-00277-w

Abstract: The study proposes a novel perspective in analyzing the nexus between labor market uncertainty and childbearing behavior, namely the full consideration of the meso-level, or social location. We claim that a comprehensive understanding of the role of employment uncertainty must include, together with the more traditional micro- and macro-levels, the social location’s exposure to uncertainty. We use the 2004–2023 rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS) to investigate the association between the employment uncertainty experienced by the respondents through their social location (i.e., unemployment in their ascribed reference group) and national context (i.e., country annual unemployment rate), net of and in interaction with the labor market uncertainty experienced by them at the individual level. We run separate analyses for men and women, and we investigate whether and how this process depends on the respondents’ socioeconomic status. Our findings show that, per se, the employment uncertainty experienced in one’s social location and country context is not substantially associated with the probability of having a child; on the other hand, as unemployment rates increase in the social location or country, the likelihood of having a child declines among individuals who never experienced labor market uncertainty, making them more similar to those who did experience personally some degree of uncertainty.

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Citation: Mussino, E., & Comolli, C. L. (2025). Migrants’ and Natives’ Childbearing Intentions in Sweden During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Sage Open, 15(4),
https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440251389549

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic generated major health, social, and economic concerns that also influenced individuals’ childbearing decisions. Migrants have been disproportionately affected compared to natives, experiencing higher mortality rates, greater job losses, and more severe financial hardships. In Sweden, these disparities are reflected in a sharper decline in birth rates among migrants relative to Swedish natives in 2021, likely due to the pandemic’s more adverse effects on migrant communities. Drawing on data from the 2021 Swedish Gender and Generation Survey, this study employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models to examine how pandemic-related concerns—and the perceived impact of the pandemic across various domains (work and financial conditions, relationship quality, and wellbeing)—are associated with short-term fertility intentions across different migrant groups (Swedish natives, European migrants, and migrants from elsewhere). Our findings reveal distinct patterns by both migrant background and domain. Among all migrant groups, deteriorating work conditions were linked to a reduced desire to have children. Financial concerns further discouraged childbearing among European migrants. In contrast, Swedish natives’ fertility plans were more strongly influenced by personal wellbeing and relationship quality than by economic factors. Notably, improved financial or employment conditions were associated with a decreased desire to have children among European migrants, possibly reflecting a prioritization of career over family among this highly educated group during the crisis. Conversely, for migrants from elsewhere, concerns about future pandemics were linked to a higher short-term fertility desire, suggesting a ‘now or never’ mindset, akin to fertility responses observed after natural disasters.

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