Natech and multi-risk assessment

Multi-risk scenarios caused by domino effects and natural events are an important component of the overall risk present in industrial areas. In particular, the relevance of Natech (natural events generating technological scenarios) risks is expected to increase in the near future, due to climate change. Natech scenarios actually are already a recurring but often overlooked feature in many natural disaster scenarios. Oil and gas installations, chemical and petrochemical sites and, in general, facilities storing relevant quantities of hazardous substances are characterised by a high vulnerability to external hazard factors as adverse natural events and a specific potential in triggering domino effects, generating complex cascading events that may amplify the direct consequences of the triggering event.

The activities carried out in this research area are aimed at:

• the development of methods and tools for the quantitative risk assessment of multi-hazard scenarios and Natech accidents, specifically addressing domino effect and cascading scenarios
• the modelling of the vulnerability of the industrial structures of concern, specifically addressing probabilistic damage models suitable for the use in quantitative risk assessment, and potential damage states leading to the release of hazardous substances
• the development of innovative robust design criteria for critical equipment and infrastructure, aimed at limiting their vulnerability to natural events in the framework of adaptation to climate change
• the assessment of safety barriers and safety systems integrity and performance in multi-risk and Natech scenarios
• the development of methods and models for the quantitative assessment of specific scenarios taking place in multi risk and Natech events (e.g. spills of chemicals on flood water, loss of containment of chemicals reacting with water, scenarios generated by fire brans in wildfires, etc.)
• the resilience assessment and the dynamic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment in complex industrial systems with respect to the interactions among external hazard factors as natural hazards and technological scenarios involving the release of hazardous substances
• the assessment of emergency response in multi-hazard scenarios and in cascading events
• the characterization of the resilience of the technological system and of the area impacted in the specific framework of Natech and multi-risk scenarios

Research and Industrial projects on this topic address:

• Assessment of Cascading Events triggered by the Interaction of Natural Hazards and Technological Scenarios involving the release of Hazardous Substances (MIUR PRIN2017, 2019 – 2023)
• Development of guidelines for the inclusion of Natech events in safety reports issued under the obligations of “Seveso-III” Directive (Versalis, 2020-2025):
•  Development of a screening method to identify relevant Natech scenarios in energy installations
• RETURN: multi-Risk sciEnce for resilienT commUnities undeR a changiNg climate (PNRR PE03 2022-2025)