Report 12/05/2020

Milan: contrasting signals in the second week of “Phase 2”.

The Hotel Activity Index (HAI) of Tuesday, May the 12th, 2020 is sending contrasting signals, likely due to the strong uncertainty that still characterises the transition to the “new normality”. As of today, it is not known yet when interregional mobility among Italian regions will be allowed, something that will be a first step in turning on the engine of domestic tourism.

The HAI trend for Milan is mirroring this general state, and sees the very-short (AB1_day, increasing) and the short expectations (AB14_days, decreasing) closing up: the share of hotels selling rooms in the OTA grows to about 30% in the first case and falls to about 50% in the second case. Medium and medium-long perspectives improve (AB28_days, AB56_days, AB140_days), and about 80% of hotels is now selling for those future dates. Ii is hence likely that the management of the hotel sector in Milan looks at June as the moment when the (almost) full operativity will resume.

Venice: the future is black

The trend of the HAI index for Venice is clearly negative, much more than in the last few weeks, regardless of the advance booking that is considered. Very-short run activity (AB1_day) falls to less than 30%, short-run activity (AB14_days) collapses to 40%, medium-run activity (AB28_days) drops to less than 60%. This negative trend appears regardless rumours for which the Government will anticipate form June the 1st to May the 18th the re-opening of bars and restaurants, something that will ease the potential restart of tourism.

What worries the hotel sector in Venice are the limitations in interregional and, specially, international mobility. The medium-long run trend (AB56_days, AB140_days) is firmly falling since mid-April and is now below 70%. The share of hotels who believe that the summer season 2020 is gone, and that is not currently accepting reservations not even at 140 days (hence with check-in days at the beginning of Autumn) is hence growing.