Report 06/05/2020

The severe limitations to mobility that characterise Phase 2 discourages a full recovery.

Milan: expectations are slightly improving, but uncertainty still discourages a full recovery.

The index of Tuesday, May the 5th, gathers hotels’ expectations in the immediate aftermath of the start of “Phase 2”, which marks a slight relaxation of the lockdown, allowing limited mobility within regions. The uncertainty related to the timing and the rules that will drive the reopening of various types of firms, and the present ban on extra-regional mobility reduce the pace of recovery and does not favor the confidence of entrepreneurs.

The dynamics of the Hotel Activity Index reflects this general situation. Although very short-term expectations start to rise (AB1_day), the percentage of rooms on sale in the OTA remains around 30%. Short-term expectations (AB14_days) decline again, remaining substantially anchored to the same restrictions in force at the beginning of Phase 2, both in terms of mobility and opening conditions. The medium perspectives (AB28_days, AB56_days, AB140_days) are better than the short-term perspectives, but still appear to be largely stable, with about 70% to 80% of hotels accepting reservations for those dates.

Venice: expectations continue to decline.

The severe limitations to mobility that also characterise Phase 2, the reduced or banned operativity of tourism-related firms (e.g. bars, pubs, and restaurants are allowed to work only in take away or home delivery modes), and the uncertainty concerning the rules and methods for reopening, negatively affect the expectations of hotels’ managers.

The dynamics of the Hotel Activity Index for Venice continues to decline, regardless of the timeframes considered. Although very short-term expectations (AB1_day) are largely stable, the short and medium perspectives (AB14_days,  AB28_days, AB56_days, AB140_days) continue to decline. This is probably linked to the strong uncertainty about how and when the reopening of most of the firms in the tourism sector will be regulated. The percentage of hotels accepting reservations in the OTA in the short and very short period ranges between 35% and 50%, whereas in the medium term it varies from 65% to 75%, indicating limited confidence of recovery for the 2020 summer season.